Pre-IPO Perps Came in a Litte Hot
SpaceX pre-IPO perpetual futures prices on the top three exchanges were 16.7% above the Nasdaq open, today. That was further from the opening price than the IPO price of the night before—but closer than previous last pre-IPO market (in QNT).
SPCX perps on Binance, Trade[XYZ] on Hyperliquid, and OKX traded consistently around an average of $175.05 for the six hours leading up to 11am ET, then started to fall as information emerged from Nasdaq’s pricing auctions ahead of the open at 11:46. The high during the final six hours of pre-IPO trading, right up to the Nasdaq open, was $180.32 on Hyperliquid at 8:36am; the low was $156.13, on Binance at 11:42. The average price spread across minute closes during pre-IPO trading, starting Wednesday at 6pm, was 0.69%.
SpaceX shares ultimately opened at $150. The IPO price of $135, set the night before, was 10% below, closer than pre-IPO perps’ morning trading.
$3B+ in Volume
RWA perps exchanges cleared $647M in volume during the final, partial hour of pre-IPO trading in SpaceX on perp exchanges, averaging $227M in volume per hour during the 12 hours leading up to the event. The 24-hour volume at the Nasdaq open was $3.06B across Binance, Bitget, Hyperliquid, and OKX.
It’s only the third time in history that pre-IPO perps have traded ahead of a completed IPO. The first time, Cerebras Systems (CBRS), RWA perps markets showed a similar degree of accuracy. The second time out, on Quantinuum (QNT), pre-IPO perps had to come down to meet the Nasdaq; and the IPO price from the night before proved closer to the market by a factor of more than two.
SpaceX IPO perps markets didn’t nail the IPO pop, but they were close enough to count as a proof point for growing RWA perps, demonstrating their ability to deliver price discovery when traditional markets are dark.
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